Weapons of Mass Destruction: From Nonproliferation to Pro-proliferation?

Nonproliferation or counterproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is ultimately unenforceable. For now, the U.S. and the West seem committed to a hold-down policy which, in the end, is bound to fail.

The proliferation of nukes and other WMD is a consequence of the diffusion of power in our world, as Pakistan, India, Iraq, N. Korea, and other nations seek to balance the power of the recognized nuclear powers. Unfortunately, WMD are seen as the great "equalizer." For example, many non-Western political leaders and military chiefs believe that if they have enough nuclear weapons, the United States won't fight them.

In due time, U.S. policy may shift from countering proliferation to accomodating proliferation and perhaps even promoting proliferation in a way that serves U.S. and Western interests.

The only thing which might keep nukes from being used is a MAD-like pact (mutually assured destruction). I don't see the weaker nations willing to give up their nukes for a "progressive" reason like "it's bad for humanity" or something. In the mid-term, in their eyes it's good for them (the rest of humanity be damned), since they believe that if they have enough nukes, the U.S. and other major powers won't be able to militarily interfere in their affairs anymore. They see the development of WMD as the price one pays to determine one's own destiny, and can we really blame them? I mean, we were the ones who started this trend.

This all makes me think of Dune, where the Great Houses had tons of nukes, but (by some pact?) refused to use them.

On another note, the only possible good spin-off of all this nuclear research ("earth penetrators" and such !!!) that I can think of is for space development. It may be useful to have powerful tools to, say, split apart asteroids for mining, or for some new kind of deep space propulsion.

NASA may be embarking on a revamped nuclear propulsion research effort which the space agency is calling Project Prometheus. In fact, one of the future space mission concepts I helped design, the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter or JIMO is an ambitious mission to orbit three planet-sized moons of Jupiter -- Callisto, Ganymede and Europa -- which may harbor vast oceans beneath their icy surfaces. JIMO would orbit each of these moons for extensive investigations of their makeup, their history and their potential for sustaining life.